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FA Cup · England
Chorley vs Worcester City prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chorley host Worcester City in the FA Cup (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chorley 1–1 Worcester City.
Going into the match, Chorley had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 15. Worcester City had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Chorley's last 10 and 5 of Worcester City's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chorley averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Worcester City averaged 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Chorley and 0.84 from Worcester City. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 23%, against 59%, 24% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 37%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chorley (green) and Worcester City (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley | WWWWL | 1.90 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
| Worcester City | LLWDL | 1.00 | 1.30 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.21 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.26 |
| Chorley Win | 59% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.64 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Chorley HT & FT | 40% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FA Cup matches that day
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - Altrincham vs United of Manchester · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Barrow vs Gloucester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Barrow Win @ 1.42 · FT 0–0 - Boreham Wood vs Woking · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Boreham Wood Win @ 1.45 - Boston United vs Scunthorpe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - Carlisle vs Tamworth · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Chesham United vs Forest Green · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Dover vs Dorking Wanderers · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - FC Halifax Town vs South Shields · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 · FT 3–2 - Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Harborough Town Win @ 1.67 - Hartlepool vs Marine · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65