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FA Cup · England
Carlisle vs Tamworth prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Carlisle host Tamworth in the FA Cup (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Carlisle 2–1 Tamworth.
Going into the match, Carlisle had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 15. Tamworth had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Carlisle's last 10 and 7 of Tamworth's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Carlisle averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Tamworth averaged 1.67 scored and 2.67 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.58 goals from Carlisle and 1.33 from Tamworth. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 17%, against 59%, 23% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Carlisle (green) and Tamworth (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.23 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Carlisle Win | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.55 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.59 |
| Carlisle HT & FT | 42% | 2.25 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FA Cup matches that day
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - Altrincham vs United of Manchester · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Barrow vs Gloucester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Barrow Win @ 1.42 · FT 0–0 - Boreham Wood vs Woking · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Boreham Wood Win @ 1.45 - Boston United vs Scunthorpe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - Chesham United vs Forest Green · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Chorley vs Worcester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 · FT 1–1 - Dover vs Dorking Wanderers · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - FC Halifax Town vs South Shields · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 · FT 3–2 - Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Harborough Town Win @ 1.67 - Hartlepool vs Marine · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65