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FA Cup · England
Hartlepool vs Marine prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hartlepool host Marine in the FA Cup (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hartlepool 0–2 Marine.
Going into the match, Hartlepool had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 18. Marine had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Hartlepool's last 10 and 6 of Marine's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hartlepool averaged 0.92 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Marine averaged 1.56 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.72 goals from Hartlepool and 1.74 from Marine. From that it rates a home win at 14%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 61%, against 60%, 22% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Hartlepool (green) and Marine (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | LWLLL | 0.90 | 1.80 | 50% | 50% |
| Marine | WWWWW | 1.80 | 1.00 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.27 |
| Hartlepool Win | 61% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.72 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Hartlepool HT & FT | 41% | 2.25 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FA Cup matches that day
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - Altrincham vs United of Manchester · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Barrow vs Gloucester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Barrow Win @ 1.42 · FT 0–0 - Boreham Wood vs Woking · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Boreham Wood Win @ 1.45 - Boston United vs Scunthorpe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - Carlisle vs Tamworth · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Chesham United vs Forest Green · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Chorley vs Worcester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 · FT 1–1 - Dover vs Dorking Wanderers · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - FC Halifax Town vs South Shields · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 · FT 3–2 - Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Harborough Town Win @ 1.67