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FA Cup · England
Dover vs Dorking Wanderers prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Dover host Dorking Wanderers in the FA Cup (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Dover 3–2 Dorking Wanderers.
Going into the match, Dover had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 14. Dorking Wanderers had won 4, drawn 6 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Dover's last 10 and 8 of Dorking Wanderers's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Dover averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.79 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Dorking Wanderers averaged 1.71 scored and 1.50 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.96 goals from Dover and 2.03 from Dorking Wanderers. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 40%, against 30%, 25% and 45% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Dover (green) and Dorking Wanderers (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dover | DWWWW | 1.90 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Dorking Wanderers | DWWDD | 2.40 | 1.80 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 Oct 2026 · Dover 1–1 Dorking Wanderers
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.63 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 53% | 1.71 |
| Dorking Wanderers Win | 45% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FA Cup matches that day
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - Altrincham vs United of Manchester · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Barrow vs Gloucester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Barrow Win @ 1.42 · FT 0–0 - Boreham Wood vs Woking · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Boreham Wood Win @ 1.45 - Boston United vs Scunthorpe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - Carlisle vs Tamworth · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Chesham United vs Forest Green · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Chorley vs Worcester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 · FT 1–1 - Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - FC Halifax Town vs South Shields · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 · FT 3–2 - Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Harborough Town Win @ 1.67 - Hartlepool vs Marine · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65