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Brito vs Vitória de Sernache prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Brito host Vitória de Sernache in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Brito 0–1 Vitória de Sernache.
Going into the match, Brito had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 8 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Vitória de Sernache had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Brito's last 8 and 5 of Vitória de Sernache's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Brito averaged 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Vitória de Sernache averaged 1.44 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Brito and 1.75 from Vitória de Sernache. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 48%, against 29%, 26% and 45% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Brito (green) and Vitória de Sernache (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brito | LWLWL | 1.75 | 1.75 | 38% | 63% |
| Vitória de Sernache | WWLLW | 1.10 | 1.60 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca · 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Arouca Win @ 1.50 · FT 3–3 - Paredes vs Famalicao · 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Fátima vs Academico Viseu · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Alpendorada vs Casa Pia · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals · FT 0–1 - Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.33 · FT 1–0 - Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Mafra vs Santa Clara · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Salgueiros vs Estoril · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Tondela vs Alverca · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 0–0 - Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals