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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Salgueiros vs Estoril prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Salgueiros host Estoril in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Salgueiros 1–1 Estoril.
Going into the match, Salgueiros had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 9 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Estoril had won 0, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Salgueiros's last 9 and 5 of Estoril's last 10; 1 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Salgueiros averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Estoril averaged 0.56 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.92 goals from Salgueiros and 0.72 from Estoril. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 26%, against 13%, 20% and 67% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 92%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Salgueiros (green) and Estoril (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salgueiros | DWWDW | 0.78 | 0.67 | 44% | 11% |
| Estoril | LLLDL | 0.50 | 1.30 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| Estoril Win | 67% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.38 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.85 |
| Estoril HT & FT | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca · 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Arouca Win @ 1.50 · FT 3–3 - Paredes vs Famalicao · 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Brito vs Vitória de Sernache · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Fátima vs Academico Viseu · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Alpendorada vs Casa Pia · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals · FT 0–1 - Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.33 · FT 1–0 - Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Mafra vs Santa Clara · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Tondela vs Alverca · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 0–0 - Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals