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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Mafra vs Santa Clara prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mafra host Santa Clara in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Mafra 2–2 Santa Clara.
Going into the match, Mafra had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 13. Santa Clara had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Mafra's last 10 and 4 of Santa Clara's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mafra averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Santa Clara averaged 1.00 scored and 0.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.01 goals from Mafra and 1.84 from Santa Clara. From that it rates a home win at 20%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 56%, against 15%, 21% and 64% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mafra (green) and Santa Clara (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | DDLWD | 1.70 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
| Santa Clara | WDWWD | 1.70 | 0.50 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.50 |
| Santa Clara Win | 60% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.60 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca · 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Arouca Win @ 1.50 · FT 3–3 - Paredes vs Famalicao · 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Brito vs Vitória de Sernache · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Fátima vs Academico Viseu · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Alpendorada vs Casa Pia · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals · FT 0–1 - Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.33 · FT 1–0 - Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Salgueiros vs Estoril · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Tondela vs Alverca · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 0–0 - Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals