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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Tondela vs Alverca prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tondela host Alverca in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tondela 0–0 Alverca.
Going into the match, Tondela had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 11. Alverca had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Tondela's last 10 and 6 of Alverca's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tondela averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Alverca averaged 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.94 goals from Tondela and 1.06 from Alverca. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 36%, against 29%, 27% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tondela (green) and Alverca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 51% | 1.82 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca · 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Arouca Win @ 1.50 · FT 3–3 - Paredes vs Famalicao · 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Brito vs Vitória de Sernache · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Fátima vs Academico Viseu · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Alpendorada vs Casa Pia · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals · FT 0–1 - Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.33 · FT 1–0 - Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Mafra vs Santa Clara · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Salgueiros vs Estoril · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals