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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CF Os Belenenses host Arouca in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Arouca Win — Arouca to win. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: CF Os Belenenses 3–3 Arouca.
Going into the match, CF Os Belenenses had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 11. Arouca had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of CF Os Belenenses's last 10 and 3 of Arouca's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CF Os Belenenses averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Arouca averaged 0.83 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.61 goals from CF Os Belenenses and 1.45 from Arouca. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 34%, against 17%, 23% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 34%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CF Os Belenenses (green) and Arouca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Os Belenenses | DWWWW | 2.10 | 1.10 | 60% | 60% |
| Arouca | WDLDW | 1.30 | 1.00 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Arouca Win | 59% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Paredes vs Famalicao · 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Brito vs Vitória de Sernache · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Fátima vs Academico Viseu · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Alpendorada vs Casa Pia · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals · FT 0–1 - Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.33 · FT 1–0 - Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Mafra vs Santa Clara · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Salgueiros vs Estoril · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Tondela vs Alverca · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 0–0 - Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals