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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Paredes vs Famalicao prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Paredes host Famalicao in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Paredes 1–0 Famalicao.
Going into the match, Paredes had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 13. Famalicao had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Paredes's last 10 and 6 of Famalicao's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Paredes averaged 2.63 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Famalicao averaged 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from Paredes and 1.21 from Famalicao. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 32%, against 13%, 14% and 73% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Paredes (green) and Famalicao (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Famalicao Win | 66% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.53 |
| Famalicao 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Famalicao HT & FT | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca · 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Arouca Win @ 1.50 · FT 3–3 - Brito vs Vitória de Sernache · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Fátima vs Academico Viseu · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Alpendorada vs Casa Pia · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals · FT 0–1 - Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.33 · FT 1–0 - Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Mafra vs Santa Clara · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Salgueiros vs Estoril · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Tondela vs Alverca · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 0–0 - Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals