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União de Leiria vs Bragança prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
União de Leiria host Bragança in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: União de Leiria 2–1 Bragança.
Going into the match, União de Leiria had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 12. Bragança had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of União de Leiria's last 10 and 3 of Bragança's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home União de Leiria averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Bragança averaged 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.42 goals from União de Leiria and 1.63 from Bragança. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 41%, against 77%, 13% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between União de Leiria (green) and Bragança (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União de Leiria | LWDWW | 1.60 | 1.20 | 40% | 40% |
| Bragança | LWWWW | 1.90 | 0.70 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| União de Leiria 1st Half Win | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.50 |
| União de Leiria HT & FT | 58% | 1.61 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.59 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 40% | 2.50 |
| 3-0 | 16% | 6.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Academica vs Amarante · 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.86 · FT 3–2 - Penafiel vs Leça · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Louletano vs Rio Ave · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - AVS vs Moreirense · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Fazendense vs Estrela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Atlético CP vs Vizela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Sanjoanense vs Nacional · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Farense vs AD Marco 09 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vianense vs Leixoes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Leixoes Win @ 1.48 - Florgrade vs Portimonense · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2