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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Penafiel vs Leça prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Penafiel host Leça in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Penafiel 0–1 Leça.
Going into the match, Penafiel had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Leça had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Penafiel's last 10 and 4 of Leça's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Penafiel averaged 1.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Leça averaged 1.56 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.65 goals from Penafiel and 1.61 from Leça. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 37%, against 54%, 24% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Penafiel (green) and Leça (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.49 |
| Penafiel Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Academica vs Amarante · 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.86 · FT 3–2 - Louletano vs Rio Ave · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - AVS vs Moreirense · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - União de Leiria vs Bragança · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 - Fazendense vs Estrela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Atlético CP vs Vizela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Sanjoanense vs Nacional · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Farense vs AD Marco 09 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vianense vs Leixoes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Leixoes Win @ 1.48 - Florgrade vs Portimonense · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2