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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Louletano vs Rio Ave prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Louletano host Rio Ave in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Louletano 0–1 Rio Ave.
Going into the match, Louletano had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 11. Rio Ave had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Louletano's last 10 and 4 of Rio Ave's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Louletano averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Rio Ave averaged 1.00 scored and 1.13 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Louletano and 1.47 from Rio Ave. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 41%, against 18%, 21% and 61% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Louletano (green) and Rio Ave (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Rio Ave Win | 60% | 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Academica vs Amarante · 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.86 · FT 3–2 - Penafiel vs Leça · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - AVS vs Moreirense · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - União de Leiria vs Bragança · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 - Fazendense vs Estrela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Atlético CP vs Vizela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Sanjoanense vs Nacional · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Farense vs AD Marco 09 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vianense vs Leixoes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Leixoes Win @ 1.48 - Florgrade vs Portimonense · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2