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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
AVS vs Moreirense prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AVS host Moreirense in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: AVS 1–0 Moreirense.
Going into the match, AVS had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 8. Moreirense had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of AVS's last 10 and 5 of Moreirense's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AVS averaged 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Moreirense averaged 0.90 scored and 2.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from AVS and 0.95 from Moreirense. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 22%, against 26%, 28% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AVS (green) and Moreirense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVS | WWDLW | 1.40 | 0.80 | 50% | 40% |
| Moreirense | LDWLL | 1.10 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Jul 2026 · Moreirense 2–2 AVS
- 16 May 2026 · Moreirense 0–0 AVS
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 71% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.73 |
| Moreirense Win | 43% | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Academica vs Amarante · 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.86 · FT 3–2 - Penafiel vs Leça · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Louletano vs Rio Ave · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - União de Leiria vs Bragança · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 - Fazendense vs Estrela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Atlético CP vs Vizela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Sanjoanense vs Nacional · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Farense vs AD Marco 09 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vianense vs Leixoes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Leixoes Win @ 1.48 - Florgrade vs Portimonense · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2