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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Farense vs AD Marco 09 prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Farense host AD Marco 09 in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Farense 3–0 AD Marco 09.
Going into the match, Farense had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 9. AD Marco 09 had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Farense's last 10 and 3 of AD Marco 09's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Farense averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home AD Marco 09 averaged 0.63 scored and 1.13 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.62 goals from Farense and 0.60 from AD Marco 09. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 12%, against 68%, 20% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Farense (green) and AD Marco 09 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | WWWDL | 1.60 | 0.90 | 70% | 60% |
| AD Marco 09 | LWWDW | 0.90 | 0.80 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.31 |
| Farense Win | 70% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.67 |
| Farense HT & FT | 52% | 1.77 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Academica vs Amarante · 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.86 · FT 3–2 - Penafiel vs Leça · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Louletano vs Rio Ave · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - AVS vs Moreirense · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - União de Leiria vs Bragança · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 - Fazendense vs Estrela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Atlético CP vs Vizela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Sanjoanense vs Nacional · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Vianense vs Leixoes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Leixoes Win @ 1.48 - Florgrade vs Portimonense · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2