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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Florgrade vs Portimonense prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Florgrade host Portimonense in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Florgrade 1–2 Portimonense.
Going into the match, Florgrade had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 9 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Portimonense had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Florgrade's last 9 and 4 of Portimonense's last 10; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Florgrade averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Portimonense averaged 0.78 scored and 0.89 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.84 goals from Florgrade and 1.17 from Portimonense. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 42%, against 18%, 22% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 86%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Florgrade (green) and Portimonense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florgrade | LWWLD | 0.89 | 1.22 | 33% | 33% |
| Portimonense | WWLLL | 0.90 | 1.00 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.41 |
| Portimonense Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Academica vs Amarante · 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.86 · FT 3–2 - Penafiel vs Leça · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Louletano vs Rio Ave · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - AVS vs Moreirense · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - União de Leiria vs Bragança · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 - Fazendense vs Estrela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Atlético CP vs Vizela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Sanjoanense vs Nacional · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Farense vs AD Marco 09 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vianense vs Leixoes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Leixoes Win @ 1.48