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Academica vs Amarante prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Academica host Amarante in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Amarante to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.86, which the bookmaker market rated at about 50% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Academica 3–2 Amarante.
Going into the match, Academica had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Amarante had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Academica's last 10 and 5 of Amarante's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Academica averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Amarante averaged 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.97 goals from Academica and 1.28 from Amarante. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 24%, against 49%, 26% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 48%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Academica (green) and Amarante (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Academica 1–1 Amarante
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Penafiel vs Leça · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Louletano vs Rio Ave · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - AVS vs Moreirense · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - União de Leiria vs Bragança · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 - Fazendense vs Estrela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Atlético CP vs Vizela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Sanjoanense vs Nacional · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Farense vs AD Marco 09 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vianense vs Leixoes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Leixoes Win @ 1.48 - Florgrade vs Portimonense · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2