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Fazendense vs Estrela prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fazendense host Estrela in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fazendense 1–2 Estrela.
Going into the match, Fazendense had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 7 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 16. Estrela had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Fazendense's last 7 and 8 of Estrela's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fazendense averaged 2.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Estrela averaged 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from Fazendense and 2.96 from Estrela. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 67%, against 5%, 10% and 85% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fazendense (green) and Estrela (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fazendense | LLWLL | 1.86 | 2.29 | 71% | 86% |
| Estrela | LLDWD | 1.90 | 1.80 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 68% | 1.44 |
| Estrela 1st Half Win | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 65% | 1.40 |
| Estrela HT & FT | 65% | 1.47 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 52% | 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 48% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Academica vs Amarante · 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.86 · FT 3–2 - Penafiel vs Leça · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Louletano vs Rio Ave · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - AVS vs Moreirense · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - União de Leiria vs Bragança · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 - Atlético CP vs Vizela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Sanjoanense vs Nacional · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Farense vs AD Marco 09 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vianense vs Leixoes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Leixoes Win @ 1.48 - Florgrade vs Portimonense · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2