Home › League stats › Taça de Portugal › Sanjoanense vs Nacional
Taça de Portugal · Portugal
Sanjoanense vs Nacional prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sanjoanense host Nacional in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sanjoanense 1–0 Nacional.
Going into the match, Sanjoanense had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Nacional had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Sanjoanense's last 10 and 4 of Nacional's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sanjoanense averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Nacional averaged 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.63 goals from Sanjoanense and 1.07 from Nacional. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 24%, against 16%, 18% and 65% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sanjoanense (green) and Nacional (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanjoanense | WWLWW | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Nacional | LLLLL | 0.90 | 2.00 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Nacional Win | 67% | 1.38 |
| Nacional 1st Half Win | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.67 |
| Nacional HT & FT | 50% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Taça de Portugal matches that day
- Academica vs Amarante · 17 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.86 · FT 3–2 - Penafiel vs Leça · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Louletano vs Rio Ave · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - AVS vs Moreirense · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - União de Leiria vs Bragança · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 - Fazendense vs Estrela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Atlético CP vs Vizela · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 · FT 1–0 - Farense vs AD Marco 09 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vianense vs Leixoes · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Leixoes Win @ 1.48 - Florgrade vs Portimonense · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Taça de Portugal
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–2