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FA Cup · England
Sutton Utd vs Truro City prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sutton Utd host Truro City in the FA Cup (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Sutton Utd to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sutton Utd 1–0 Truro City.
Going into the match, Sutton Utd had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 18. Truro City had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Sutton Utd's last 10 and 6 of Truro City's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sutton Utd averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Truro City averaged 1.22 scored and 0.78 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.68 goals from Sutton Utd and 1.40 from Truro City. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 53%, against 43%, 27% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 47%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sutton Utd (green) and Truro City (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | WLDLD | 1.10 | 1.80 | 60% | 40% |
| Truro City | WWDWW | 2.10 | 0.80 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Sutton Utd Win | 46% | 2.05 |
| Sutton Utd HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FA Cup matches that day
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - Altrincham vs United of Manchester · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Barrow vs Gloucester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Barrow Win @ 1.42 · FT 0–0 - Boreham Wood vs Woking · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Boreham Wood Win @ 1.45 - Boston United vs Scunthorpe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - Carlisle vs Tamworth · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Chesham United vs Forest Green · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Chorley vs Worcester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 · FT 1–1 - Dover vs Dorking Wanderers · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - FC Halifax Town vs South Shields · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 · FT 3–2 - Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Harborough Town Win @ 1.67