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FA Cup · England
Spalding United vs Alvechurch prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Spalding United host Alvechurch in the FA Cup (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.85, which the bookmaker market rated at about 51% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Spalding United 2–2 Alvechurch.
Going into the match, Spalding United had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 8. Alvechurch had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Spalding United's last 10 and 5 of Alvechurch's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Spalding United averaged 1.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Alvechurch averaged 1.64 scored and 1.18 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.09 goals from Spalding United and 1.18 from Alvechurch. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 37%, against 49%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Spalding United (green) and Alvechurch (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spalding United | LWDLW | 1.90 | 0.80 | 60% | 50% |
| Alvechurch | DLWDL | 1.60 | 0.80 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 62% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.77 |
| Spalding United Win | 51% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Spalding United HT & FT | 37% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FA Cup matches that day
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - Altrincham vs United of Manchester · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Barrow vs Gloucester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Barrow Win @ 1.42 · FT 0–0 - Boreham Wood vs Woking · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Boreham Wood Win @ 1.45 - Boston United vs Scunthorpe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - Carlisle vs Tamworth · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Chesham United vs Forest Green · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Chorley vs Worcester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 · FT 1–1 - Dover vs Dorking Wanderers · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - FC Halifax Town vs South Shields · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 · FT 3–2 - Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Harborough Town Win @ 1.67