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FA Cup · England
Southend vs Berkhamsted prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Southend host Berkhamsted in the FA Cup (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Southend 1–2 Berkhamsted.
Going into the match, Southend had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 17. Berkhamsted had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 10 of Southend's last 10 and 4 of Berkhamsted's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Southend averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Berkhamsted averaged 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.84 goals from Southend and 1.37 from Berkhamsted. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 28%, against 70%, 17% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Southend (green) and Berkhamsted (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend | WWDLW | 2.40 | 1.70 | 100% | 80% |
| Berkhamsted | WWLWL | 1.80 | 0.80 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.21 |
| Southend Win | 71% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.64 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.71 |
| Southend 1st Half Win | 54% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FA Cup matches that day
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - Altrincham vs United of Manchester · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Barrow vs Gloucester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Barrow Win @ 1.42 · FT 0–0 - Boreham Wood vs Woking · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Boreham Wood Win @ 1.45 - Boston United vs Scunthorpe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–3 - Carlisle vs Tamworth · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Chesham United vs Forest Green · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Chorley vs Worcester City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 · FT 1–1 - Dover vs Dorking Wanderers · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - FC Halifax Town vs South Shields · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 · FT 3–2 - Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Harborough Town Win @ 1.67