Home › League stats › UEFA Europa Conference League › FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda
UEFA Europa Conference League · International
FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Lugano host FK Crvena Zvezda in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda.
Going into the match, FC Lugano had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 10. FK Crvena Zvezda had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of FC Lugano's last 10 and 3 of FK Crvena Zvezda's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Lugano averaged 2.13 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 16 matches; away from home FK Crvena Zvezda averaged 1.57 scored and 1.00 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.85 goals from FC Lugano and 1.04 from FK Crvena Zvezda. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 20%, against 37%, 27% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Lugano (green) and FK Crvena Zvezda (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | WLWWD | 2.40 | 1.00 | 70% | 80% |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | WWWWD | 2.10 | 0.60 | 30% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- FC Lugano form and statistics
- FK Crvena Zvezda form and statistics
- UEFA Europa Conference League statistics
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
- Atalanta vs Pafos · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 3–1 - Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.73 · FT 2–1 - Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.36 · FT 4–0 - FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.36 · FT 3–0 - SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 3–2 - Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–0 - Twente vs FC Thun · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Twente Win @ 1.20 · FT 1–0 - CSKA Sofia vs Monaco · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Gent vs Aarhus · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Gent Win @ 1.57 · FT 1–0 - HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1