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HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
HNK Hajduk Split host Ajax in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Ajax.
Going into the match, HNK Hajduk Split had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 9. Ajax had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 31 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of HNK Hajduk Split's last 10 and 9 of Ajax's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home HNK Hajduk Split averaged 2.38 goals scored and 0.77 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Ajax averaged 2.90 scored and 0.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from HNK Hajduk Split and 1.27 from Ajax. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 30%, against 21%, 21% and 58% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between HNK Hajduk Split (green) and Ajax (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | WLWWW | 2.10 | 0.90 | 40% | 70% |
| Ajax | DDWWL | 3.10 | 1.70 | 90% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| Ajax Win | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Ajax HT & FT | 42% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- HNK Hajduk Split form and statistics
- Ajax form and statistics
- UEFA Europa Conference League statistics
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