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Atalanta vs Pafos prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atalanta host Pafos in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Atalanta 3–1 Pafos.
Going into the match, Atalanta had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 8. Pafos had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Atalanta's last 10 and 4 of Pafos's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atalanta averaged 1.09 goals scored and 0.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Pafos averaged 1.41 scored and 1.12 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Atalanta and 1.00 from Pafos. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 28%, against 71%, 19% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atalanta (green) and Pafos (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Atalanta Win | 70% | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Atalanta HT & FT | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
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Published pick: Gent Win @ 1.57 · FT 1–0 - HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - KuPS vs Trabzonspor · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–4