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CSKA Sofia vs Monaco prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CSKA Sofia host Monaco in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: CSKA Sofia 1–2 Monaco.
Going into the match, CSKA Sofia had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 13. Monaco had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of CSKA Sofia's last 10 and 7 of Monaco's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CSKA Sofia averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Monaco averaged 1.73 scored and 2.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.58 goals from CSKA Sofia and 1.24 from Monaco. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 29%, against 17%, 21% and 62% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CSKA Sofia (green) and Monaco (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | WDWWW | 2.30 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
| Monaco | DWDWW | 2.00 | 1.20 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Monaco Win | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
- Atalanta vs Pafos · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 3–1 - Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.73 · FT 2–1 - Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.36 · FT 4–0 - FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.36 · FT 3–0 - SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 3–2 - Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–0 - Twente vs FC Thun · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Twente Win @ 1.20 · FT 1–0 - Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Gent vs Aarhus · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Gent Win @ 1.57 · FT 1–0 - HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - KuPS vs Trabzonspor · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–4