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UEFA Europa Conference League · International
Gent vs Aarhus prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gent host Aarhus in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Gent Win — Gent to win. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gent 1–0 Aarhus.
Going into the match, Gent had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 7. Aarhus had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Gent's last 10 and 7 of Aarhus's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gent averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Aarhus averaged 1.62 scored and 1.77 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.42 goals from Gent and 0.91 from Aarhus. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 23%, against 60%, 22% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 48%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gent (green) and Aarhus (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Gent Win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
- Atalanta vs Pafos · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 3–1 - Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.73 · FT 2–1 - Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.36 · FT 4–0 - FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.36 · FT 3–0 - SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 3–2 - Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–0 - Twente vs FC Thun · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Twente Win @ 1.20 · FT 1–0 - CSKA Sofia vs Monaco · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1 - KuPS vs Trabzonspor · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–4