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Championship · England
Southampton vs QPR prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Southampton host QPR in the Championship (England) on 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Southampton had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 9. QPR had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Southampton's last 10 and 6 of QPR's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Southampton averaged 2.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home QPR averaged 1.67 scored and 1.25 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.39 goals from Southampton and 1.16 from QPR. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 30%, against 50%, 25% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 47%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Southampton (green) and QPR (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | WDWWL | 2.00 | 0.90 | 70% | 50% |
| QPR | WLWDD | 1.70 | 1.10 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Bolton vs Bristol City · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Bolton +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.21 - Burnley vs Portsmouth · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Middlesbrough vs Charlton · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Middlesbrough Win @ 1.25 - Millwall vs Derby · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Swansea vs Blackburn · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 - West Ham vs West Brom · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.22 - Wolves vs Cardiff · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25 - Lincoln vs Birmingham · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Norwich vs Watford · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.22 - Stoke City vs Preston · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36