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Championship · England
Burnley vs Portsmouth prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Turf Moor, Burnley
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Burnley host Portsmouth in the Championship (England) on 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Burnley had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 20. Portsmouth had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Burnley's last 10 and 5 of Portsmouth's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Burnley averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Portsmouth averaged 1.07 scored and 1.47 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.26 goals from Burnley and 1.35 from Portsmouth. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 38%, against 43%, 28% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Burnley (green) and Portsmouth (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | LLDWD | 1.40 | 2.00 | 90% | 70% |
| Portsmouth | WDWWL | 1.20 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Bolton vs Bristol City · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Bolton +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.21 - Middlesbrough vs Charlton · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Middlesbrough Win @ 1.25 - Millwall vs Derby · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Southampton vs QPR · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Swansea vs Blackburn · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 - West Ham vs West Brom · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.22 - Wolves vs Cardiff · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25 - Lincoln vs Birmingham · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Norwich vs Watford · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.22 - Stoke City vs Preston · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36