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Championship · England
Millwall vs Derby prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · The Den, London
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Millwall host Derby in the Championship (England) on 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Millwall had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 16. Derby had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Millwall's last 10 and 5 of Derby's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Millwall averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Derby averaged 1.31 scored and 1.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Millwall and 0.85 from Derby. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 22%, against 57%, 25% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Millwall (green) and Derby (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Millwall Win | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Bolton vs Bristol City · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Bolton +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.21 - Burnley vs Portsmouth · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Middlesbrough vs Charlton · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Middlesbrough Win @ 1.25 - Southampton vs QPR · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Swansea vs Blackburn · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 - West Ham vs West Brom · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.22 - Wolves vs Cardiff · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25 - Lincoln vs Birmingham · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Norwich vs Watford · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.22 - Stoke City vs Preston · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36