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Riga vs Kairat Almaty prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Riga host Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty.
Going into the match, Riga had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 13. Kairat Almaty had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Riga's last 10 and 2 of Kairat Almaty's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Riga averaged 2.65 goals scored and 0.90 conceded across 20 matches; away from home Kairat Almaty averaged 1.61 scored and 1.06 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.98 goals from Riga and 1.03 from Kairat Almaty. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 18%, against 50%, 27% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Riga (green) and Kairat Almaty (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | WWWWD | 1.90 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
| Kairat Almaty | WLLWW | 1.30 | 1.30 | 20% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Riga Win | 49% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
- Atalanta vs Pafos · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 3–1 - Brann vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.73 · FT 2–1 - Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.36 · FT 4–0 - FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.36 · FT 3–0 - SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 3–2 - Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999 · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–0 - Twente vs FC Thun · 15 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Twente Win @ 1.20 · FT 1–0 - CSKA Sofia vs Monaco · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–2 - Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Gent vs Aarhus · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Gent Win @ 1.57 · FT 1–0 - HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax · 15 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–1