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USL Championship · USA
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Las Vegas Lights host Lexington in the USL Championship (USA) on 18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Las Vegas Lights 3–5 Lexington.
Going into the match, Las Vegas Lights had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Lexington had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Las Vegas Lights's last 10 and 5 of Lexington's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Las Vegas Lights averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Lexington averaged 1.77 scored and 1.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Las Vegas Lights and 1.98 from Lexington. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 50%, against 31%, 26% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Las Vegas Lights (green) and Lexington (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Lights | LWLDW | 1.20 | 1.40 | 50% | 40% |
| Lexington | DWWWW | 2.10 | 1.10 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 Aug 2026 · Lexington 2–0 Las Vegas Lights
- 3 May 2026 · Las Vegas Lights 2–1 Lexington
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other USL Championship matches that day
- Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs · 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Colorado Springs Win @ 1.45 · FT 0–1 - Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising · 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–3 - El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 0–1 - San Antonio vs New Mexico United · 18 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots · 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 2–4 - Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–0 - Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–3 - Louisville City vs Indy Eleven · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Miami FC vs Charleston Battery · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 1–2