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USL Championship · USA
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Louisville City host Indy Eleven in the USL Championship (USA) on 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Louisville City 4–1 Indy Eleven.
Going into the match, Louisville City had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 10. Indy Eleven had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Louisville City's last 10 and 6 of Indy Eleven's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Louisville City averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Indy Eleven averaged 0.77 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.86 goals from Louisville City and 0.92 from Indy Eleven. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 17%, against 54%, 24% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Louisville City (green) and Indy Eleven (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | WWDWL | 1.30 | 1.00 | 60% | 50% |
| Indy Eleven | LDLLL | 1.30 | 1.50 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 Aug 2026 · Indy Eleven 2–1 Louisville City
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Louisville City Win | 55% | 1.65 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other USL Championship matches that day
- Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington · 18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs · 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Colorado Springs Win @ 1.45 · FT 0–1 - Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising · 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–3 - El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 0–1 - San Antonio vs New Mexico United · 18 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots · 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 2–4 - Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–0 - Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–3 - Miami FC vs Charleston Battery · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 1–2