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USL Championship · USA
San Antonio vs New Mexico United prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
San Antonio host New Mexico United in the USL Championship (USA) on 18 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: San Antonio 1–0 New Mexico United.
Going into the match, San Antonio had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 12. New Mexico United had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of San Antonio's last 10 and 8 of New Mexico United's last 10; 3 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home San Antonio averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 15 matches; away from home New Mexico United averaged 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.96 goals from San Antonio and 1.28 from New Mexico United. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 42%, against 49%, 26% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between San Antonio (green) and New Mexico United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | DLLDD | 0.30 | 1.20 | 20% | 30% |
| New Mexico United | WWLLD | 1.80 | 1.60 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 30 Aug 2026 · New Mexico United 1–2 San Antonio
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other USL Championship matches that day
- Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington · 18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs · 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Colorado Springs Win @ 1.45 · FT 0–1 - Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising · 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–3 - El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 0–1 - FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots · 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 2–4 - Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–0 - Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–3 - Louisville City vs Indy Eleven · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Miami FC vs Charleston Battery · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 1–2