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USL Championship · USA
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Orange County SC host Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship (USA) on 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Orange County SC 1–3 Phoenix Rising.
Going into the match, Orange County SC had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 25. Phoenix Rising had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Orange County SC's last 10 and 8 of Phoenix Rising's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Orange County SC averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.77 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Phoenix Rising averaged 0.86 scored and 1.79 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from Orange County SC and 1.96 from Phoenix Rising. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 42%, against 31%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Orange County SC (green) and Phoenix Rising (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | LLWLL | 0.80 | 2.50 | 60% | 60% |
| Phoenix Rising | WLLLW | 1.50 | 1.70 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Phoenix Rising 2–1 Orange County SC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other USL Championship matches that day
- Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington · 18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs · 18 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Colorado Springs Win @ 1.45 · FT 0–1 - El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 0–1 - San Antonio vs New Mexico United · 18 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots · 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 2–4 - Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City · 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–0 - Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 2–3 - Louisville City vs Indy Eleven · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Miami FC vs Charleston Battery · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 1–2