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UEFA Europa Conference League · International
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · MCH Arena, Herning
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Midtjylland host Ajax in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FC Midtjylland had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 11. Ajax had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of FC Midtjylland's last 10 and 8 of Ajax's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Midtjylland averaged 2.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Ajax averaged 2.83 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.58 goals from FC Midtjylland and 1.19 from Ajax. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 28%, against 35%, 25% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Midtjylland (green) and Ajax (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | WWWLW | 2.50 | 1.10 | 80% | 70% |
| Ajax | WWWWL | 2.50 | 1.30 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 43% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
- FC Copenhagen vs FC Iberia 1999 · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Getafe vs Brighton · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
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Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
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Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - St. Truiden vs Brann · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Twente vs Pafos · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Twente Win @ 1.30 - Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Aarhus vs SC Braga · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 - Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.91 - FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.40