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UEFA Europa Conference League · International
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · AIL Arena, Lugano
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Lugano host Kauno Žalgiris in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is FC Lugano Win — FC Lugano to win. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 79% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FC Lugano had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 32 and conceding 13. Kauno Žalgiris had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of FC Lugano's last 10 and 4 of Kauno Žalgiris's last 10; 10 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Lugano averaged 2.17 goals scored and 0.94 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Kauno Žalgiris averaged 1.55 scored and 1.14 conceded across 22.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.11 goals from FC Lugano and 0.71 from Kauno Žalgiris. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 10%, against 78%, 14% and 7% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Lugano (green) and Kauno Žalgiris (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | WWWWW | 3.20 | 1.30 | 70% | 100% |
| Kauno Žalgiris | WDLWL | 1.90 | 1.30 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano Win | 81% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| FC Lugano 1st Half Win | 60% | 1.53 |
| FC Lugano HT & FT | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- FC Lugano form and statistics
- Kauno Žalgiris form and statistics
- UEFA Europa Conference League statistics
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