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UEFA Europa Conference League · International
Aarhus vs SC Braga prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · Cepheus Park, Randers
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aarhus host SC Braga in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Aarhus had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 11. SC Braga had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Aarhus's last 10 and 4 of SC Braga's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aarhus averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 17 matches; away from home SC Braga averaged 1.25 scored and 1.06 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.21 goals from Aarhus and 1.22 from SC Braga. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 35%, against 26%, 27% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aarhus (green) and SC Braga (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
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Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33