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UEFA Europa Conference League · International
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · New Balance Arena, Bergamo
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atalanta host Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Europa Conference League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 3.5 Goals — more than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.91, which the bookmaker market rated at about 48% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Atalanta had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 22. Kairat Almaty had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Atalanta's last 10 and 5 of Kairat Almaty's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atalanta averaged 1.46 goals scored and 1.23 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Kairat Almaty averaged 1.56 scored and 1.11 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from Atalanta and 1.18 from Kairat Almaty. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 24%, against 80%, 13% and 6% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 34%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atalanta (green) and Kairat Almaty (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | LDDLL | 1.60 | 2.20 | 70% | 80% |
| Kairat Almaty | DDLWD | 1.80 | 1.40 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Atalanta 1st Half Win | 62% | 1.50 |
| Atalanta HT & FT | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 48% | 1.91 |
| Atalanta Win & BTTS | 32% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Atalanta form and statistics
- Kairat Almaty form and statistics
- UEFA Europa Conference League statistics
Other UEFA Europa Conference League matches that day
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Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.40 - KuPS vs Gent · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa Conference League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33