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J1 League · Japan
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
V-varen Nagasaki host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League (Japan) on 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win — Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: V-varen Nagasaki 4–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
Going into the match, V-varen Nagasaki had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 15. Sanfrecce Hiroshima had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 4 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of V-varen Nagasaki's last 10 and 2 of Sanfrecce Hiroshima's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home V-varen Nagasaki averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Sanfrecce Hiroshima averaged 1.71 scored and 0.93 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.98 goals from V-varen Nagasaki and 2.04 from Sanfrecce Hiroshima. From that it rates a home win at 16%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 61%, against 16%, 21% and 63% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between V-varen Nagasaki (green) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-varen Nagasaki | LDDLD | 0.90 | 1.50 | 50% | 30% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | WWWWW | 2.40 | 0.40 | 20% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Apr 2026 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.75 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima HT & FT | 44% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Urawa vs JEF United Chiba · 21 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Urawa Win @ 1.67 · FT 3–2 - Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 1–2 - FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–0 - Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 2–2 - Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 2–0 - Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 0–5 - Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 2–2