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J1 League · Japan
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nagoya Grampus host Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League (Japan) on 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka.
Going into the match, Nagoya Grampus had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 19. Cerezo Osaka had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Nagoya Grampus's last 10 and 5 of Cerezo Osaka's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nagoya Grampus averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Cerezo Osaka averaged 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.44 goals from Nagoya Grampus and 1.58 from Cerezo Osaka. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 40%, against 41%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nagoya Grampus (green) and Cerezo Osaka (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | WDWWL | 1.50 | 1.90 | 70% | 80% |
| Cerezo Osaka | LWDWW | 1.30 | 1.50 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Cerezo Osaka 6–1 Nagoya Grampus
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Urawa vs JEF United Chiba · 21 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Urawa Win @ 1.67 · FT 3–2 - Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 1–2 - FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–0 - Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 2–2 - Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 2–0 - Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 0–5 - V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win @ 1.50 · FT 4–0 - Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 2–2