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J1 League · Japan
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fagiano Okayama host Mito Hollyhock in the J1 League (Japan) on 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Mito Hollyhock.
Going into the match, Fagiano Okayama had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Mito Hollyhock had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Fagiano Okayama's last 10 and 4 of Mito Hollyhock's last 10; 9 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fagiano Okayama averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Mito Hollyhock averaged 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.34 goals from Fagiano Okayama and 1.05 from Mito Hollyhock. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 28%, against 53%, 26% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fagiano Okayama (green) and Mito Hollyhock (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama | LDLWW | 1.60 | 1.70 | 80% | 90% |
| Mito Hollyhock | LWLWL | 1.50 | 1.00 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Fagiano Okayama Win | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Urawa vs JEF United Chiba · 21 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Urawa Win @ 1.67 · FT 3–2 - Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 1–2 - FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–0 - Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 2–2 - Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 0–5 - V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win @ 1.50 · FT 4–0 - Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 2–2