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J1 League · Japan
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Shimizu S-pulse host Machida Zelvia in the J1 League (Japan) on 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Shimizu S-pulse 0–5 Machida Zelvia.
Going into the match, Shimizu S-pulse had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Machida Zelvia had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Shimizu S-pulse's last 10 and 5 of Machida Zelvia's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Shimizu S-pulse averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.21 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Machida Zelvia averaged 1.92 scored and 0.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.69 goals from Shimizu S-pulse and 1.83 from Machida Zelvia. From that it rates a home win at 12%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 64%, against 26%, 29% and 45% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Shimizu S-pulse (green) and Machida Zelvia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | DLWDW | 1.30 | 1.20 | 70% | 50% |
| Machida Zelvia | WWWDW | 1.70 | 0.80 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
| Machida Zelvia Win | 44% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J1 League matches that day
- Urawa vs JEF United Chiba · 21 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Urawa Win @ 1.67 · FT 3–2 - Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 1–2 - FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–0 - Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 2–2 - Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 2–0 - V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win @ 1.50 · FT 4–0 - Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J1 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 2–2