Home › League stats › UEFA Europa League › Sturm Graz vs Celje
UEFA Europa League · International
Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sturm Graz host Celje in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Sturm Graz had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 14. Celje had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Sturm Graz's last 10 and 3 of Celje's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sturm Graz averaged 2.26 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Celje averaged 1.50 scored and 1.14 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.70 goals from Sturm Graz and 0.81 from Celje. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 17%, against 62%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 46%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sturm Graz (green) and Celje (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | DLDWW | 1.70 | 1.40 | 50% | 60% |
| Celje | WDWDD | 1.10 | 1.00 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Sturm Graz Win | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Bayer Leverkusen Win @ 1.36 - Benfica vs Lech Poznan · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.80 - Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Celtic vs Beşiktaş · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Sunderland Win @ 1.48 - Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: AC Milan Win @ 1.33 - Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40