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UEFA Europa League · International
Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · Estádio da Luz, Lisbon
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Benfica host Lech Poznan in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 51% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Benfica had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 8. Lech Poznan had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Benfica's last 10 and 7 of Lech Poznan's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Benfica averaged 3.07 goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Lech Poznan averaged 2.23 scored and 1.31 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.97 goals from Benfica and 1.27 from Lech Poznan. From that it rates a home win at 71%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 13%, against 83%, 12% and 5% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 31%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Benfica (green) and Lech Poznan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | WWWWW | 2.70 | 0.80 | 60% | 70% |
| Lech Poznan | WLWDW | 2.30 | 1.70 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica HT & FT | 64% | 1.50 |
| Benfica 1st Half Win | 64% | 1.44 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
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Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40