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UEFA Europa League · International
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · Vasil Levski National Stadium, Sophia
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Levski Sofia host Jagiellonia in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Levski Sofia had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Jagiellonia had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Levski Sofia's last 10 and 5 of Jagiellonia's last 10; 2 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Levski Sofia averaged 2.28 goals scored and 0.44 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Jagiellonia averaged 2.00 scored and 1.07 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.53 goals from Levski Sofia and 0.77 from Jagiellonia. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 18%, against 49%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Levski Sofia (green) and Jagiellonia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | WDWWD | 1.20 | 0.80 | 40% | 20% |
| Jagiellonia | WWWLL | 2.10 | 1.40 | 50% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Bayer Leverkusen Win @ 1.36 - Benfica vs Lech Poznan · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.80 - Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Celtic vs Beşiktaş · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Sturm Graz vs Celje · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Sunderland Win @ 1.48 - Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: AC Milan Win @ 1.33 - Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50