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UEFA Europa League · International
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen host Marseille in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Bayer Leverkusen Win — Bayer Leverkusen to win. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Bayer Leverkusen had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 15. Marseille had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 and 5 of Marseille's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bayer Leverkusen averaged 2.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Marseille averaged 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.68 goals from Bayer Leverkusen and 0.94 from Marseille. From that it rates a home win at 74%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 10%, against 69%, 17% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bayer Leverkusen (green) and Marseille (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | LWLWW | 2.50 | 1.50 | 50% | 70% |
| Marseille | WWLWL | 1.70 | 1.70 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Bayer Leverkusen Win | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Benfica vs Lech Poznan · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.80 - Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Celtic vs Beşiktaş · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Sturm Graz vs Celje · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Sunderland Win @ 1.48 - Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: AC Milan Win @ 1.33 - Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40