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UEFA Europa League · International
Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Sociedad host Lyon in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Real Sociedad had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 17. Lyon had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Real Sociedad's last 10 and 5 of Lyon's last 10; 9 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Sociedad averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Lyon averaged 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.89 goals from Real Sociedad and 1.43 from Lyon. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 28%, against 52%, 25% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Sociedad (green) and Lyon (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | LWWWD | 2.50 | 1.70 | 80% | 90% |
| Lyon | WLLWW | 1.70 | 1.20 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Bayer Leverkusen Win @ 1.36 - Benfica vs Lech Poznan · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.80 - Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Celtic vs Beşiktaş · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Sturm Graz vs Celje · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Sunderland Win @ 1.48 - Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: AC Milan Win @ 1.33 - Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50