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Lillestrom vs Plzen prediction and preview
5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lillestrom host Plzen in the UEFA Europa League (International) on 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Lillestrom had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 18. Plzen had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Lillestrom's last 10 and 7 of Plzen's last 10; 7 and 10 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lillestrom averaged 1.65 goals scored and 1.88 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Plzen averaged 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Lillestrom and 2.04 from Plzen. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 55%, against 30%, 26% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lillestrom (green) and Plzen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | WWWLW | 1.70 | 1.80 | 60% | 70% |
| Plzen | WWLLW | 2.20 | 1.70 | 70% | 100% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Europa League matches that day
- AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Bayer Leverkusen Win @ 1.36 - Benfica vs Lech Poznan · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.80 - Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Celtic vs Beşiktaş · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Sturm Graz vs Celje · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Sunderland Win @ 1.48 - Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia · 5 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: AC Milan Win @ 1.33 - Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC · UEFA Europa League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50