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Ligue 3 · France
Valenciennes vs Amiens prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Valenciennes host Amiens in the Ligue 3 (France) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Valenciennes 1–1 Amiens.
Going into the match, Valenciennes had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 15. Amiens had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Valenciennes's last 10 and 1 of Amiens's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Valenciennes averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Amiens averaged 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.90 goals from Valenciennes and 1.11 from Amiens. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 39%, against 36%, 27% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Valenciennes (green) and Amiens (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes | LWLLD | 1.00 | 1.50 | 60% | 50% |
| Amiens | WDWDW | 1.40 | 0.30 | 10% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 3 matches that day
- Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91 · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Concarneau vs Bastia · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 - Gobelins vs Rouen · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Quevilly vs Orleans · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Thionville Lusitanos vs Versailles · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 1–2 - Villefranche vs Cannes · 17 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ligue 3
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 2–1